Collin County, September 2026: The Split Turned Around
The September 2026 Collin County data turned August’s story on its head. Last month the county split into two directions: resale and lease firmed while new construction gave ground. In September the two sides traded places. Resale is now where prices slipped. Sellers raised the ask, buyers paid less, and the gap between the two blew open. New construction, the soft spot a month ago, steadied. Builders trimmed the ask again, but the prices that actually closed came in roughly flat with last year. The divergence held. The segments just swapped roles.
Volume stayed quiet everywhere. Closed sales fell month over month in all three segments, and in new construction and lease the drop was steep. A new early signal also showed up: 52 coming-soon listings in both new construction and resale, and 30 in lease. That supply is lined up but not yet counted.
The rate backdrop held steady. Mortgage rates sit at 6.41%, unchanged from August and 16 basis points below a year ago. That is material relief for qualifying buyers, and it is still the one constant across all three segments.
Where you sit still decides which way the leverage tilts. Builder, resale buyer, seller, landlord, or tenant: September moved the room to negotiate to a different part of the table.
New Construction: Steadier Prices, Thinner Traffic
August’s builders blinked. In September they found their footing on price, even as buyers kept their distance. Average list price eased to $525.05K, down 1.8% MoM and essentially flat on the year (+0.3% YoY). Average sold price landed at $426.7K, down 1.2% MoM but only 0.3% YoY. That is a sharp change from August’s 6.8% annual decline. The list-to-sold spread narrowed to roughly $98K, down from about $109K. It is still wide, but it is moving in the builders’ direction.
The volume is where the strain shows. Closed sales fell to 442, down 11.2% MoM and a heavy 28.6% YoY, the steepest annual sales decline in the report. Meanwhile supply started building. Active listings rose to 2,233 (+4.8% MoM, -2.4% YoY), new listings ticked up 3.9% MoM to 638, and months of supply climbed from 3.7 to 4.1.
Execution stayed the slowest in the county. New builds are closing at 92.7% of original on 79 days on market, five days slower than August.
Key New Construction Metrics:
Active listings: 2,233 (+4.8% MoM, -2.4% YoY)
New listings: 638 (+3.9% MoM, -15.8% YoY)
Closed sales: 442 (-11.2% MoM, -28.6% YoY)
Average list price: $525.05K (-1.8% MoM, +0.3% YoY)
Average sold price: $426.7K (-1.2% MoM, -0.3% YoY)
The takeaway: builders are holding price better than they were a month ago, but they are doing it with fewer buyers and more inventory sitting on the lot. A $98K spread, 79 days on market, and closings down nearly 29% on the year still add up to real leverage. Incentives remain on the table. Ask for them, and expect builders to protect price harder than they protect terms.
Resale: The Ask and the Close Part Ways
August’s resale lesson was discipline. Sellers priced right at the market and the list-to-sold gap shrank to about $1K. In September that discipline slipped. Average list price jumped to $623.57K, up 5.1% MoM. Average sold price went the other way, falling to $550.7K, down 6.1% MoM and 5.8% YoY. A month ago resale sold prices were up 2.4% on the year. Now they are the weakest annual price read in the report.
The gap between the ask and the close widened to roughly $73K. Part of that reflects which homes listed and which homes closed this month, but the direction is clear. Sellers are asking more than buyers are paying.
Supply kept tightening. Active listings fell to 4,421 (-4.1% MoM, -4.8% YoY) and months of supply eased from 5.4 to 5.0. Flow slowed on both ends, with new listings down 2.9% MoM to 1,396 and closed sales down 7.9% MoM to 868. Closed sales are nearly even with last year (-0.8% YoY), so the buyers are still there. They are just paying less. Homes took 55 days to sell, up from 49, at 93.7% of original, down from 94.4%.
Key Resale Metrics:
Active listings: 4,421 (-4.1% MoM, -4.8% YoY)
New listings: 1,396 (-2.9% MoM, -4.1% YoY)
Closed sales: 868 (-7.9% MoM, -0.8% YoY)
Average list price: $623.57K (+5.1% MoM, -4.5% YoY)
Average sold price: $550.7K (-6.1% MoM, -5.8% YoY)
For buyers: 4,421 homes and 5 months of supply is still the deepest selection in the county, and the negotiating room came back this month. Sold prices are down nearly 6% on the year and homes are closing well under today’s average ask. Look past the list price and make offers grounded in what has actually sold.
For sellers: the market didn’t follow the higher asks. Homes are taking longer and closing at a lower share of original. Inventory is shrinking, which works in your favor, but only if the price meets buyers where they are. Pricing to recent closings, not to the current list average, is what moves a home in under eight weeks.
Lease: The Tightest Corner of the County
The rental squeeze got tighter again. Active lease listings sit at 2,309, down 22.0% YoY, still the sharpest annual contraction in the report. Months of supply is just 2.1.
Asking rents eased to an average of $2.74K, down 1.5% MoM. Signed rents moved up anyway: average leased price held at $2.6K, up 0.3% MoM and 5.5% YoY, nearly double August’s 2.8% annual gain. Execution tightened too. Units are leasing in 41 days, faster than August, at 96.6% of original, the strongest share-of-ask in the county.
Volume thinned sharply, with closed leases down 25.2% MoM to 798 and new listings down 11.6% YoY to 1,235. Fewer units are coming available, and the ones that do are going quickly at close to full price.
Key Lease Metrics:
Active listings: 2,309 (-1.8% MoM, -22.0% YoY)
New listings: 1,235 (-10.4% MoM, -11.6% YoY)
Closed leases: 798 (-25.2% MoM, -14.9% YoY)
Average list price: $2.74K (-1.5% MoM)
Average leased price: $2.6K (+0.3% MoM, +5.5% YoY)
For renters: don’t read too much into the softer asking rent. Signed rents are up 5.5% on the year, supply is down more than a fifth, and units are leasing faster than last month. Come ready to apply.
For investors: Collin County rental stock is down 22% from a year ago, and rent growth accelerated. That scarcity is supporting rent, occupancy, and speed at the same time.
The Bottom Line
If August was the table splitting, September is the table turning. Volume stayed soft everywhere, and the price story is still two stories. They just changed places.
New construction: prices steadied. Sold prices are nearly flat on the year (-0.3% YoY), the spread narrowed to about $98K, but closings fell 28.6% YoY and supply is building again at 4.1 months.
Resale: the ask and the close split apart. List prices rose 5.1% MoM while sold prices fell 5.8% YoY, opening a gap of about $73K, even as inventory kept shrinking.
Lease: scarcity deepened. Supply is down 22.0% YoY, signed rents are up 5.5% YoY, and units are leasing faster at 96.6% of original.
The through line from August still holds: divergence on a steady floor. The floor is 6.41%, 16 basis points of material relief for qualifying buyers. On top of it, resale softened, new construction held its price, and rentals tightened. For a buyer, the map redrew this month. Real negotiating room is back in resale, builders still have incentives to give, and in lease the clock runs fastest of all.
Important Note:
This analysis is based on data from NTREIS (North Texas Real Estate Information Systems) as of Septmber 30, 2026. Market conditions can change rapidly, and this report is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a guarantee of future market performance.
