Collin County Went Quiet in July — But Not Weak

The July 2026 Collin County data reads like a market catching its breath. Closed transactions fell in every segment — new construction, resale, and lease all posted double-digit or near double-digit monthly declines in volume. That's the headline. But underneath it, prices barely moved on the year. Sold prices in all three segments landed within half a percent of where they sat last July. Activity cooled. Value held.

The rate story changed too. Mortgage rates sit at 6.41%, up from June and now just 16 basis points below last year — a fraction of the 68-point advantage buyers were working with a month ago. The tailwind didn't disappear, but it thinned. Which means the variable that decides deals this summer isn't rates. It's supply, and it's who's willing to move on price.

Where you sit — builder, resale buyer, seller, landlord, or tenant — still determines which way the leverage tilts. In July, it tilted toward patience in every direction.

New Construction: Builders Raise the Ask

June's builders were reopening the faucet. July's turned it into a standoff. Average list price climbed again to $541.72K, up 2.3% month over month — but the ask is now running well ahead of what's actually closing. Average sold price held flat at $450.5K, down 0.3% MoM and down just 0.4% YoY. That leaves a spread of roughly $91K between list and sold, the widest gap of any segment, and it's the clearest evidence of a market where sellers and buyers haven't agreed on a number.

The demand side pulled back hard. Closed sales dropped to 458, down 25.8% MoM and 22.5% YoY — the steepest volume decline in the report. Active listings, meanwhile, rose 5.8% MoM to 2,113. More homes, fewer buyers pulling the trigger.

That combination shows up in the execution numbers: new builds are closing at 94.0% of original list on 70 days on market, the slowest timeline of any segment. Builders are asking more and waiting longer to get it. New listings held at 684 (up 2.4% MoM) but remain down 25.9% YoY — the pipeline is still throttled year over year, which is the only thing keeping months of supply at a manageable 3.7.

Key New Construction Metrics:

• Active listings: 2,113 (+5.8% MoM, -1.9% YoY)

  
  

• New listings: 684 (+2.4% MoM, -25.9% YoY)

  
  

• Closed sales: 458 (-25.8% MoM, -22.5% YoY)

  
  

• Average list price: $541.72K (+2.3% MoM, -3.0% YoY)

  
  

• Average sold price: $450.5K (-0.3% MoM, -0.4% YoY)

The takeaway: builders are holding a firmer ask into softer demand. With a $91K list-to-sold spread, 70 days on market, and 94.0% of original, the negotiating room didn't shrink — it moved to the closing table. Ask for the incentives. They're there, and this month they're easier to get.

Resale: Sellers Cut Again

Resale stayed the buyer's market, and sellers kept doing the thing a buyer's market requires: cutting. Average list price fell to $608.72K, down 4.6% MoM — the sharpest price move in the report. Sold prices followed down to $604.0K, off 3.3% MoM but only 0.4% YoY. That annual number is the one to sit with: after a month of visible cuts, resale homes are still selling for essentially what they fetched a year ago.

Active listings edged up to 5,109 (+1.4% MoM), holding months of supply at 5.8 — the deepest in the county and squarely a buyer's market. But the flow slowed on both ends. New listings dropped 11.6% MoM to 1,822, and closed sales fell 11.3% MoM to 1,056. Fewer sellers came to market, and fewer deals got done. The summer quiet is real here.

For the deals that did close, the outcome was strong: 47 days on market at 95.3% of original. Price it right at launch, and resale still moves fast.

Key Resale Metrics:

• Active listings: 5,109 (+1.4% MoM, -2.6% YoY)

  
  

• New listings: 1,822 (-11.6% MoM, -1.2% YoY)

  
  

• Closed sales: 1,056 (-11.3% MoM, -1.1% YoY)

  
  

• Average list price: $608.72K (-4.6% MoM, -2.2% YoY)

  
  

• Average sold price: $604.0K (-3.3% MoM, -0.4% YoY)

  
  

For buyers: 5,109 homes and 5.8 months of supply is still the widest selection in the county. The rate advantage is thinner than it was, but the leverage on price is not — sellers are cutting, and sold prices are down on the month.

For sellers: the outcome data is better than the inventory number implies — 47 days, 95.3% of original, prices flat YoY. But it took a 4.6% cut in the ask to earn it. Launch at the right number and you get speed. Launch aspirationally and you become part of the 5,109.

Lease: Landlords Hold the Line

Asking rents softened, but actual rents didn't. Average list price on leases slipped to $2.80K, down 4.3% MoM — yet average leased price rose to $2.7K, up 0.9% MoM and 1.2% YoY. Landlords are advertising a little lower and still closing a little higher. That's a position of strength, and the supply picture explains it.

Active lease listings sit at 2,286 — down 16.7% YoY, the sharpest annual contraction in the report — with months of supply at just 2.05. Units lease in 37 days at 98.0% of original, the tightest and fastest execution of any segment. The volume is soft (closed leases down 6.4% MoM and 8.7% YoY, new listings down 7.2% YoY), but scarcity is doing the work: fewer leases are getting done, and the ones that do get done fast and near ask.

Key Lease Metrics:

• Active listings: 2,286 (-0.4% MoM, -16.7% YoY)

  
  

• New listings: 1,608 (-3.4% MoM, -7.2% YoY)

  
  

• Closed leases: 1,115 (-6.4% MoM, -8.7% YoY)

  
  

• Average list price: $2.80K (-4.3% MoM)

  
  

• Average leased price: $2.7K (+0.9% MoM, +1.2% YoY)

For renters: with barely two months of supply, the good units still go fast and go near ask. The asking rent dipped, but what's actually being signed is up year over year.

For investors: Collin County rental stock is down nearly 17% from a year ago. That scarcity is protecting occupancy, speed, and rate all at once.

The Bottom Line

If June was about each side of the table deciding how to respond to the inventory build, July is about the whole table going quiet. Volume fell everywhere. Rates gave back most of their year-over-year edge. And through all of it, prices held.

• New construction: builders raised the ask (+2.3% MoM) into a demand pullback (closed sales -25.8% MoM). A $91K list-to-sold spread, 70 days on market, and 94.0% of original say the leverage lives at the closing table. Negotiate the incentives.

  
  

• Resale: still the buyer's market at 5.8 months of supply. Sellers cut again (-4.6% MoM on list), but the ones who priced right closed in 47 days at 95.3% of original. Sold prices are down just 0.4% YoY.

  
  

• Lease: landlords held the line. Asking rents dipped, leased rents rose (+1.2% YoY), and supply is down nearly 17% from last year. Renters have less room than the softer ask suggests.

  
  

The through-line for the year has shifted. For months the story was rates — 68 basis points of relief carrying the market. In July that relief thinned to 16 basis points, and the market leaned on something more durable: prices holding within half a percent of last summer across every segment, even as activity cooled. Collin County didn't get weaker in July. It got quieter. For a resale buyer with patience and a willingness to negotiate, quiet is exactly the condition worth showing up for.

Important Note:

This analysis is based on data from NTREIS (North Texas Real Estate Information Systems) as of July 31, 2026.  Market conditions can change rapidly, and this report is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a guarantee of future market performance.