Collin County March 2026 Market Update: Buyers Still in the Driver's Seat

Mortgage rates locked in at 6.23%. Resale inventory is exploding. Sales activity just woke up in a big way. If you've been waiting on the sidelines, March wrote you a permission slip.

The March 2026 numbers from NTREIS are in, and Collin County is showing one of the most interesting setups we've seen in a while. Mortgage rates held steady at 6.23% — down 0.60% from this time last year — and the report is calling it out plainly: This is great news for buyers.

But here's where it gets fun. Each segment of the market is telling its own story this month. New construction is tightening up. Resale is flooded with options. The rental market is getting squeezed. Let's break it down.

New Construction: Inventory Tightens, Sales Surge

The new construction sector cooled on the supply side this month. Active listings landed at 1,784 — that's down 7.9% from February and flat year-over-year. So while builders aren't pulling back dramatically compared to last March, they aren't flooding the market either.

What jumped off the page? Closed sales spiked 21.0% month-over-month to 548 — buyers are clearly moving. The average list price slid to $432.83K (down 6.9% YoY), and homes are closing at $511.3K. Buyers are still walking away with strong negotiation wins, locking in homes at just 91.1% of the original list price.

Quick hits — New Construction:

• Active Listings: 1,784 (down 7.9% MoM, flat YoY)

  
  

• New Listings: 683 (up 14.4% YoY)

  
  

• Coming Soon: 72 properties on deck

  
  

• Closed Sales: 548 (up 21.0% MoM)

  
  

• Average Closed Price: $511.3K

  
  

• Days on Market: 88

  
  

• Months Supply: 3.1

  
  

• Negotiation Edge: Homes closing 9.1% below original ask

  
  

Translation: builders are still motivated to deal, but the window may be narrowing as inventory pulls back. If you've been eyeing a new build in Frisco, McKinney, Prosper, or Celina — don't drag your feet.

Resale: The Floodgates Just Opened

If new construction is tightening, resale just went the opposite direction. Active listings shot up to 3,928 — that's a massive 19.5% jump from February and 13.9% above last March. More inventory, more options, more leverage.

And buyers responded. Closed sales rocketed 41.0% month-over-month to 908 transactions. That's not a typo. The market that had been sluggish woke up fast.

The pricing picture is a buyer's dream year-over-year. The average list price sits at $579.97K (down 9.9% YoY), and the average closed price came in at $661.7K. Sellers are receiving 95.6% of their original list price — meaning negotiation room is real.

Quick hits — Resale:

• Active Listings: 3,928 (up 19.5% MoM, up 13.9% YoY)

  
  

• New Listings: 1,990 (up 30.2% MoM, up 4.3% YoY)

  
  

• Closed Sales: 908 (up 41.0% MoM, up 2.7% YoY)

  
  

• Average Closed Price: $661.7K

  
  

• Days on Market: 54

  
  

• Months Supply: 4.5

  
  

• Sold vs Original: 95.6%

Resale homes are moving notably faster than new builds (54 days vs 88), and with 4.5 months of supply, this is the most balanced segment of the market right now. If you're a buyer who likes options, this is your playground.

Rental Market: Supply Tightens, Pace Stays Brisk

The lease market flipped the script this month — inventory dropped 11.6% from February and is down 6.2% year-over-year. Active listings now sit at 1,858.

Tighter supply hasn't slowed leasing activity either. Closed leases climbed 5.0% MoM to 916, with the average lease closing at $2.60K per month. Landlords pulled in 96.4% of their original asking rent — the strongest negotiation position in the market right now.

Quick hits — Lease:

• Active Listings: 1,858 (down 11.6% MoM, down 6.2% YoY)

  
  

• New Listings: 1,172 (up 10.8% MoM)

  
  

• Closed Leases: 916 (up 5.0% MoM)

  
  

• Average Closed Lease: $2.60K

  
  

• Days on Market: 52

  
  

• Months Supply: 1.95

  
  

• Sold vs Original: 96.4%

With less than 2 months of supply, the rental market is the tightest segment in Collin County. If you're a renter eyeing a move this spring, expect competition — and if you're a landlord with a vacancy, this is your moment.

The Big Picture: A Market Built for Decisions

Here's the bottom line on Collin County in March 2026:

Buyers — you've got rate stability at 6.23%, healthy inventory in resale, and real negotiation leverage on new construction. The 41% jump in resale closed sales tells me others are catching on. Don't get caught flat-footed.

Sellers — the market is moving, but pricing strategy matters more than ever. With sellers averaging 95.6% of original list in resale and 91.1% in new construction, the days of "list it and they will come" are gone. You need a plan.

Renters — supply is tightening fast. If your lease is coming up this summer, get ahead of it.

Mortgage rates holding steady. Months of supply ranging from a tight 1.95 in the rental market to a healthier 4.5 in resale. Sales volume waking up across the board. This is the kind of market where good decisions get rewarded.

If you want to talk strategy — whether you're buying, selling, or leasing in Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, Prosper, or anywhere else in Collin County — let's connect. I'll bring the data, the local knowledge, and a plan that actually fits your situation.

Important Note:

This analysis is based on data from NTREIS (North Texas Real Estate Information Systems) as of March 31, 2026.  Market conditions can change rapidly, and this report is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a guarantee of future market performance.