Builders Blink: What May's Numbers Say About Collin County

The May 2026 Collin County data tells a story of buyers stepping off the sidelines. Mortgage rates have settled at 6.11% — down 68 basis points year-over-year and still the most durable tailwind in this market for anyone trying to qualify. But the headline this month isn't the rate. It's the response: with resale inventory at its deepest level in months and pricing softer than a year ago, buyers stopped waiting and started transacting.

April was the month the three residential segments stopped moving in lockstep. May is the month the conditions they created started producing action — and in places, started forcing the other side's hand.

Where you sit in this market — builder, resale buyer, seller, landlord, or tenant — still determines which way the leverage tilts. But this month, leverage is being used.

New Construction: Builders Blink on Price

This is the cleanest reversal in the data. After a March-into-April stretch of builders firming and even nudging up list prices, May tells the opposite story: average list price fell to $505.52K, down 5.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year. Builders stopped holding the line and started repricing toward where deals actually close.

And the close held up. Average sold price ticked to $444.0K, up 0.9% month-over-month — essentially flat to slightly positive even as list prices came down. That narrowing gap shows up in the execution number: new builds closed at 93.0% of original list, an improvement from prior months. The lesson isn't subtle — when builders list closer to reality, they capture more of the ask.

The pressure behind the repricing is on the demand side. Closed sales landed at 530, down 3.1% month-over-month but down a notable 17.8% year-over-year. New construction is moving meaningfully fewer units than it was a year ago, and the list-price cuts are the market's answer to that.

Key New Construction Metrics:

• Active listings: 1,962 (+3.7% MoM, +1.8% YoY)

  
  

• New listings: 769 (-6.3% MoM, +10.6% YoY)

  
  

• Closed sales: 530 (-3.1% MoM, -17.8% YoY)

  
  

• Average list price: $505.52K (-5.3% MoM, -3.7% YoY)

  
  

• Average sold price: $444.0K (+0.9% MoM, -1.0% YoY)

The takeaway: builders recalibrated. A quarter ago the negotiating room was hiding at the closing table while list prices climbed. This month builders moved the asking price down to meet the market — which means prepared buyers are starting from a friendlier number, not just finishing at one.

Resale: Buyers Answer the Inventory Build

The resale segment is the story of the month. Active listings climbed again to 4,840 — up 10.6% month-over-month — pushing months of supply to 5.5, firmly into buyer's-market territory. On its own, that reads as continued softening. But the demand response is what makes May different.

Closed sales surged to 1,135, up 15.1% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. Buyers didn't just browse the expanded inventory — they bought it. And spring pricing strength followed: average sold price rose to $619.6K, up 5.3% month-over-month, the kind of seasonal lift you'd expect when demand wakes up.

The year-over-year picture still anchors expectations, though. Sold prices remain down 5.2% YoY and list prices down 3.3% YoY — the market is more active than last spring, not more expensive. One more signal worth watching: new listings fell to 2,077, down 6.6% month-over-month and 12.3% year-over-year. The supply spigot is slowing at the source even as accumulated inventory stays high.

Key Resale Metrics:

• Active listings: 4,840 (+10.6% MoM, -0.7% YoY)

  
  

• New listings: 2,077 (-6.6% MoM, -12.3% YoY)

  
  

• Closed sales: 1,135 (+15.1% MoM, +5.4% YoY)

  
  

• Average list price: $651.40K (-3.3% MoM, -3.3% YoY)

  
  

• Average sold price: $619.6K (+5.3% MoM, -5.2% YoY)

For buyers, the window that opened this spring is still open — deep selection, softer YoY pricing, real leverage. For sellers, the read is more encouraging than the raw inventory number suggests: the demand is there, deals are closing fast (43 days on market), and execution stayed strong at 96.1% of original. But that strength is earned by accurate pricing at launch. The buyers are active. They are not, at these supply levels, patient with an aspirational list price.

Lease: Tight Supply, Softening Rents

The lease market moved against April's narrative. Active listings sit at 1,949 — essentially flat month-over-month (-0.8%) but down a sharp 14.2% year-over-year. Months of supply held tight at 1.8, which still puts landlords in a structurally strong position on speed and execution.

But the pricing turn reversed. After lease rates briefly went positive year-over-year last month, May pulled them back: average leased price slipped to $2.5K, down 1.2% month-over-month and 1.8% year-over-year. Average list price dropped 6.6% month-over-month. Properties are still leasing fast and close to ask — 97.4% of original — so tenants aren't gaining time. They're gaining a little room on rate.

Key Lease Metrics:

• Active listings: 1,949 (-0.8% MoM, -14.2% YoY)

  
  

• New listings: 1,497 (+11.5% MoM, -8.8% YoY)

  
  

• Closed leases: 1,086 (+5.5% MoM, -6.0% YoY)

  
  

• Average list price: $2.77K (-6.6% MoM)

  
  

• Average leased price: $2.5K (-1.2% MoM, -1.8% YoY)

For renters, the calculus is mixed: supply is genuinely scarce, so the good units still move quickly — but the rate pressure has eased, and asking prices have come down enough that there's a case for negotiating. For investors, Collin County's rental supply remains thin, which protects occupancy and time-on-market even as headline rents cool off the recent highs.

The Bottom Line

If April was about three segments diverging, May is about what each side does with the leverage that divergence created.

• New construction: Builders blinked. List prices came down to meet the market, sold prices held, and execution improved. The negotiating room has moved upstream — buyers now start from a more honest number.

  
  

• Resale: Buyers answered the inventory build. Sales surged double digits, spring pricing firmed, and deals are closing fast. The leverage is still with buyers on a YoY basis — but the demand response means sellers who price right are getting strong, quick outcomes.

  
  

• Lease: Supply stays tight, but pricing softened and turned negative YoY. Landlords keep the structural edge on speed; tenants finally have a small opening on rate.

  
  

The "great news for buyers" thread that's run through these reports all year is still intact — rates 68 basis points lower, deeper resale selection, softer pricing than last spring. What's new in May is that buyers believed it. The deal is there in resale, and this month, people acted on it. In new construction, the builders are the ones adjusting. And in lease, the edge is narrowing — slowly — for the first time in a while.

Important Note:

This analysis is based on data from NTREIS (North Texas Real Estate Information Systems) as of May 31, 2026.  Market conditions can change rapidly, and this report is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a guarantee of future market performance.